USD/CAD 4-Hour Technical & Fundamental Analysis
USD/CAD has dropped below a key support level, pressured by both technical and fundamental bearish drivers as the U.S. dollar weakens and the Canadian dollar gains strength. The 4-hour chart structure shows a potential distribution phase followed by a liquidity grab, signaling smart money manipulation before a possible continuation to the downside.
Price broke down below the minor support at 1.36800, triggering short entries. However, a sharp reversal followed, hunting stop-losses and liquidating early sellers. This false breakout indicates a manipulation phase, where price seeks liquidity before choosing direction.
If the price closes below 1.36700 with a solid 4H candle body, it confirms bearish intent and opens the door for a continuation down to the next key support, aligning with broader USD weakness and CAD strength.
📊 Trade Setup
📍 Area of Interest (AOI): 1.36700 (Sell on 4H candle close below)
🛡 Stop-Loss: 1.37310 (Above liquidity zone)
🎯 Take Profit: 1.34750 (Next minor support / 1:3 RR)
This setup capitalizes on institutional distribution, manipulation, and liquidity hunting behavior, providing a clear bearish roadmap.
Fundamental Outlook:
U.S. Dollar Weakness
Non-Farm Employment Change (June 6):
Actual: 139K vs Forecast: 126K | Previous: 147K
Slowing momentum in job growth hints at labor market softening, increasing the probability of a Fed rate pause.
Trade & Fiscal Pressure:
Reuters reports that 90% of FX strategists expect continued USD decline due to:
Expanding federal deficit
Unpredictable trade policy
Over $3.3 trillion added to national debt from tax cuts and stimulus packages
Canadian Dollar Strength
The CAD surged to an 8-month high (1.3665 on June 5), supported by:
Rebound in oil prices (Canada’s top export)
Optimism surrounding U.S.–China trade negotiations
A U.S. trade court blocking proposed tariffs, boosting risk sentiment
📌 Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. Always wait for proper confirmation before executing trades. Manage risk wisely and trade what you see—not what you feel.
USD/CAD has dropped below a key support level, pressured by both technical and fundamental bearish drivers as the U.S. dollar weakens and the Canadian dollar gains strength. The 4-hour chart structure shows a potential distribution phase followed by a liquidity grab, signaling smart money manipulation before a possible continuation to the downside.
Price broke down below the minor support at 1.36800, triggering short entries. However, a sharp reversal followed, hunting stop-losses and liquidating early sellers. This false breakout indicates a manipulation phase, where price seeks liquidity before choosing direction.
If the price closes below 1.36700 with a solid 4H candle body, it confirms bearish intent and opens the door for a continuation down to the next key support, aligning with broader USD weakness and CAD strength.
📊 Trade Setup
📍 Area of Interest (AOI): 1.36700 (Sell on 4H candle close below)
🛡 Stop-Loss: 1.37310 (Above liquidity zone)
🎯 Take Profit: 1.34750 (Next minor support / 1:3 RR)
This setup capitalizes on institutional distribution, manipulation, and liquidity hunting behavior, providing a clear bearish roadmap.
Fundamental Outlook:
U.S. Dollar Weakness
Non-Farm Employment Change (June 6):
Actual: 139K vs Forecast: 126K | Previous: 147K
Slowing momentum in job growth hints at labor market softening, increasing the probability of a Fed rate pause.
Trade & Fiscal Pressure:
Reuters reports that 90% of FX strategists expect continued USD decline due to:
Expanding federal deficit
Unpredictable trade policy
Over $3.3 trillion added to national debt from tax cuts and stimulus packages
Canadian Dollar Strength
The CAD surged to an 8-month high (1.3665 on June 5), supported by:
Rebound in oil prices (Canada’s top export)
Optimism surrounding U.S.–China trade negotiations
A U.S. trade court blocking proposed tariffs, boosting risk sentiment
📌 Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. Always wait for proper confirmation before executing trades. Manage risk wisely and trade what you see—not what you feel.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.
Feragatname
Bilgiler ve yayınlar, TradingView tarafından sağlanan veya onaylanan finansal, yatırım, işlem veya diğer türden tavsiye veya tavsiyeler anlamına gelmez ve teşkil etmez. Kullanım Şartları'nda daha fazlasını okuyun.